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What Kp actually means
The Kp index is a measure of how disturbed Earth’s magnetic field is, on a scale from 0 (quiet) to 9 (extreme storm). It is calculated every three hours from a network of magnetometers around the world, and it is quasi-logarithmic: Kp 6 is not twice Kp 3, it is a much bigger event.
Two things to keep in mind. First, Kp is a planetary average and is published after the fact; forecasts of it are guesses based on the solar wind. Second, it was designed for mid-latitudes. In Lapland a “low” Kp of 1 or 2 regularly gives a perfectly good aurora, because we are already under the oval.
What matters more on the night is the solar wind arriving at Earth right now — especially the north–south direction of its magnetic field, Bz. When Bz turns southward (negative) and stays there for twenty minutes or more, energy pours into the magnetosphere and a substorm often follows. We keep an eye on the Finnish Meteorological Institute’s auroras and space weather pages, which include magnetometer readings from the Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory itself, a few kilometres from Aino’s yard.